Martingale Calculator
What a progression really costs
Martingale doubles the stake after every loss so that a single win recovers everything. It works right up until it does not: the stake ladder grows exponentially and the table limit or your bankroll ends the run.
Enter your base stake, the progression multiplier and your win chance to see exactly how much bankroll each step demands and how often the whole progression busts.
Classic Martingale doubles: 2x.
Bankroll needed
1,023.00
To survive all 10 steps
Bust probability per run
0.108%
1 in 927.0
Steps your bankroll covers
9 of 10
Real bust chance 0.214%
Expected value per round
-0.01
Unchanged by the progression
| Step | Stake | Total risked | Chance of reaching |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100.00% |
| 2 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 50.50% |
| 3 | 4.00 | 7.00 | 25.50% |
| 4 | 8.00 | 15.00 | 12.88% |
| 5 | 16.00 | 31.00 | 6.50% |
| 6 | 32.00 | 63.00 | 3.28% |
| 7 | 64.00 | 127.00 | 1.66% |
| 8 | 128.00 | 255.00 | 0.838% |
| 9 | 256.00 | 511.00 | 0.423% |
| 10 | 512.00 | 1,023.00 | 0.214% |
Rows in red exceed your bankroll — that is where the progression stops and the accumulated losses become permanent. Table limits usually bite even earlier.
How to read the results
- Bankroll needed is the sum of every step — it grows exponentially, not linearly.
- Bust probability is the chance of losing every step in the progression during a single run.
- Expected value per round is unchanged by the progression; only the shape of the outcomes moves.
- A progression trades many small wins for occasional catastrophic losses of exactly the same total size.
Frequently asked questions
Does the Martingale system work?
It produces frequent small wins and rare very large losses that cancel them out. Expected value per round is identical to flat betting, and table limits guarantee the progression eventually fails.
How much bankroll does Martingale need?
Ten doubling steps from a 1 unit base costs 1,023 units to complete. Each extra step roughly doubles that requirement.
Is a reverse Martingale safer?
Anti-Martingale raises stakes after wins, which caps the downside at your base stake but makes big wins rarer. The expected value is again unchanged.
Related calculators
These tools are informational. They describe the mathematics of casino games; they do not predict outcomes and no calculator can overcome a house edge. Gambling involves real financial risk — 18+ only, and seek help if it stops being entertainment.