Crash Calculator
Cash-out odds and bust streaks
In a provably fair crash game the chance that a round reaches a multiplier of m is (1 - house edge) / m. That single formula decides everything: your win rate, your bust streaks and the expected value of any auto cash-out you set.
Enter your cash-out target and stake to see how often the round survives, how likely a long losing streak is, and how many rounds you need before hitting your target becomes more likely than not.
The multiplier you auto cash out at.
Stake-style originals: Mines, Dice, Limbo, Plinko, Crash.
Used for the dry-session odds above.
Win chance per round
49.50%
1 in 2.0
Profit per win
$10.00
Expected value $-0.10 per round
No win in 100 rounds
2.13e-28%
Chance of a full dry session
Rounds for 50% chance
1
Before hitting the target is more likely than not
Watch the crash run
Every round draws a real crash point from the seed. Green means the rocket passed your target before it blew.
Last 0 rounds
Hunt tracker
- Current dry streak
- 0
- Odds of that streak
- —
- Longest dry streak
- 6
- Biggest crash seen
- 0.0000x
Same stake every round.
0 = no limit. This is where real progressions die.
Stop once you are up this much. 0 = never.
Stop once you are down this much. 0 = never.
- Net result
- +$100.00
- Total wagered
- $2,000
- Win rate
- 52.50%
- Max drawdown
- $120
- Longest losing streak
- 6
- Peak balance
- $1,160
- Biggest single win
- $10.00
- Ended by
- Session length
1,000 simulated sessions
Chasing 2.0000x for 200 rounds, replayed from scratch each time. A high target turns most sessions into a loss funded by the rare big one.
| Target | Win chance | Odds | Profit per win | No win in 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2000x | 82.50% | 1 in 1.2 | $2.00 | 2.01e-74% |
| 1.5000x | 66.00% | 1 in 1.5 | $5.00 | 1.41e-45% |
| 2.0000x | 49.50% | 1 in 2.0 | $10.00 | 2.13e-28% |
| 3.0000x | 33.00% | 1 in 3.0 | $20.00 | 4.05e-16% |
| 5.0000x | 19.80% | 1 in 5.1 | $40.00 | 2.61e-8% |
| 10.0000x | 9.90% | 1 in 10.1 | $90.00 | 0.00297% |
| 25.0000x | 3.96% | 1 in 25.3 | $240.00 | 1.76% |
| 50.0000x | 1.98% | 1 in 50.5 | $490.00 | 13.54% |
| 100.0x | 0.990% | 1 in 101.0 | $990.00 | 36.97% |
Crash outcomes follow P(multiplier >= m) = (1 - house edge) / m, the standard provably fair construction, and the simulation draws from exactly that distribution. Every target carries the same expected value — only the shape of the session changes.
How to read the results
- Win chance is the probability that the round survives to your cash-out target.
- Bust streak is the chance of losing every round over the session length you enter — long streaks are far more common than most players expect.
- Rounds for 50% is the number of rounds needed before you are more likely than not to hit the target at least once.
- Higher targets do not improve expected value; they trade win rate for payout size at the same house edge.
Frequently asked questions
What is the probability of crash reaching 2x?
With a 1% house edge the chance of reaching 2x is 0.99 / 2 = 49.5%. At 10x it is 9.9%, and at 100x it is 0.99%. The instant-bust round at 1.00x is where the house edge lives.
Does a low cash-out multiplier reduce the house edge?
No. Every target has the same expected value: probability multiplied by payout always equals 1 minus the house edge. Low targets win often and pay little; high targets do the opposite.
How long can a losing streak last?
At a 2x target the chance of losing 10 rounds in a row is about 0.1%, but across a 1,000-round session such a streak is close to certain to appear at least once. Use the bust streak field to size your bankroll accordingly.
Related calculators
These tools are informational. They describe the mathematics of casino games; they do not predict outcomes and no calculator can overcome a house edge. Gambling involves real financial risk — 18+ only, and seek help if it stops being entertainment.